A new working paper by Louis-Marie Harpedanne on designing test pools taking into account homophily: Encompassing small potential clusters in test pools makes it possible to overcome the usual information-theoretic limits of group testing (which are based upon an implicit homogeneity assumption) and to identify asymptomatic carriers who would be misclassified as negatives even by exhaustive individual testing.
Targeting High-Contact Individuals
Can interventions targeting a minority of highly connected individuals effectively limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2? Gianluca Manzo and Arnout van de Rijt analyzed population survey data finding that a small proportion of individuals reports a very high frequency of close-range contacts. Their simulations show that targeting hubs where high numbers of close-range contacts occure can robustly improve containment.
Latest COVID-research – NBER Working Papers
This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).
From the 2 November edition:
- Nursing Home Quality, COVID-19 Deaths, and Excess Mortality, Christopher J. Cronin and William N. Evans
- Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic: It Is Not Who You Teach, but How You Teach, George Orlov, Douglas McKee, James Berry, Austin Boyle, Thomas DiCiccio, Tyler Ransom, Alex Rees-Jones, and Jörg Stoye
- Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests, Andrew Atkeson, Michael C. Droste, Michael Mina, and James H. Stock
NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.
Thousands of new COVID-cases each day – what do the numbers really tell us?
Johannes Borgen analyzes available French hospital data to compare the first COVID-19-wave with the present second wave. His conclusion: We are yet below the intensity of the pandemic in March and April – but we’re moving fast in a similar direction. Study the stats for yourself.
The lockdown and its impact on the mortality by COVID-19
In their recent paper, Nicola Borri, Francesco Drago, Chiara Santantonio and Francesco Sobbrio trace the effect of the closing of all non-essential economic activities on the mortality by COVID-19. Their findings suggest that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by COVID-19. Found out more here.
“Pandemics as Rights-Generators”
While the Covid-19 pandemic has sparked widespread concern over the weakening of human rights protections, the crisis has also seen some unexpected rights victories. In her new paper EUI Professor of Public International Law, Neha Jain, traces these victories in the field of prisoners’ rights and argues that rights seeking strategies that were successful during the Covid-crisis may provide a blueprint for rights claims beyond the pandemic.
Latest COVID-research – NBER Working Papers
This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).
From the 26 October edition:
- How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt
- The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness, Joseph E. Stiglitz
- Industrial Clusters, Networks and Resilience to the Covid-19 Shock in China, Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Yingyue Quan, and Xiaobo Zhang
- The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: A Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery, Jeffrey Clemens, Drew McNichols, and Joseph J. Sabia
- Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Charles I. Jones
NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.
Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations
In their new paper, Miltiadis Makris and Flavio Toxvaerd consider the equilibrium and socially optimal amount of social distancing when pharmaceutical innovations such as vaccines and treatments are on the horizon.
Latest COVID-research – NBER Working Papers
This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).
From the 19 October edition:
- Civil Liberties in Times of Crisis, Marcella Alsan, Luca Braghieri, Sarah Eichmeyer, Minjeong Joyce Kim, Stefanie Stantcheva, and David Y. Yang
- Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges, Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito
- How Did Depositors Respond to COVID-19?, Ross Levine, Chen Lin, Mingzhu Tai, and Wensi Xie
NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.
Lockdown and social distancing fuel wage inequality and poverty across Europe
The economic impact of lockdown and social distancing measures goes beyond the contraction of GDP. Juan C.Palomino, Juan G.Rodríguez, Raquel Sebastian study the capacity of people across different occupations to continue their work under four different lockdown scenarios. Their findings suggest for 29 European countries significant rises in poverty levels as well as wage losses especially for poor workers in jobs with limited teleworking capacity. Growing wage inequality may be among the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis.